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2018 Mid term elections
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House forecast

Who will win the House?

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229
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206
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Quick numbers

Seats gained/lost
Competitive districts won (58)
Democrats
Republicans
36
Democrats
-  36
Republicans
32
26
Avg. vote share 
Solid/safe districts
Democrats
53.4%
Democrats
Republicans
44.5%
Republicans
197
180

Odds of winning control

Democrats

82.5%

Republicans

17.5%

Battleground races

We expect there to be 37 races that could easily be won by either party. By easily won, we mean that both parties have anywhere from a 25-75% chance of winning these districts. Of these races, we expect Democrats to win 18, and Republicans to win 19. Based on the nature that Democrats clearly have more "safe" districts in the bag, splitting the tough districts does not serve the Republicans well.

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In order for Republicans to keep control of the House, they need to win 31 of these 37 districts. We expect there to be ample opportunities for Republicans to pull off upsets, but it would be highly unlikely for the party to make it to 218 seats. 

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State forecasts

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