2018 Mid term elections
Who will win the Senate?
2018 races won
Odds of winning control
We expect there to be 11 races that could easily be won by either party. By easily won, we mean that both parties have anywhere from a 25-75% chance of winning these races. Of these races, we expect Democrats to win 7, and Republicans to win 4. Based on the fact that Democrats are playing defense in 26 of the 35 Senate races, this edge in battleground elections is not enough for Democrats to take control of the upper chamber.
In order for Democrats to pull off the upset, they need to win 8 of these 11 races. We expect Democrats to make Election Night very interesting with narrow wins in coin-flip states, but we think they will lack the major upset victory -- such as in Tennessee or Texas -- to win the Senate.