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    Last updated:  Novermber 6th
    2018 Mid term elections
    ​
    Senate forecast

    Who will win the Senate?

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    49
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    51
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    Quick numbers

    Seats gained/lost
    2018 races won
    Democrats
    Republicans
    0
    Democrats
    0
    Republicans
    26
    9

    Odds of winning control

    22.2%

    Democrats

    Republicans

    77.8%

    Battleground races

    We expect there to be 11 races that could easily be won by either party. By easily won, we mean that both parties have anywhere from a 25-75% chance of winning these races. Of these races, we expect Democrats to win 7, and Republicans to win 4. Based on the fact that Democrats are playing defense in 26 of the 35 Senate races, this edge in battleground elections is not enough for Democrats to take control of the upper chamber.

    ​

    In order for Democrats to pull off the upset, they need to win 8 of these 11 races. We expect Democrats to make Election Night very interesting with narrow wins in coin-flip states, but we think they will lack the major upset victory -- such as in Tennessee or Texas -- to win the Senate.

    Race projections

    Arizona
    Sinema
    McSally
    50.4%
    48.5%
    California
    *Both candidates are Democrats. We project Dianne Feinstein to win.
    Connecticut
    Murphy
    Corey
    63.3%
    35.7%
    Delaware
    Carper
    Arlett
    60.3%
    38.3%
    Florida
    Nelson
    Scott
    50.2%
    49.8%
    Hawaii
    Hirono
    Curtis
    69.4%
    30.6%
    Indiana
    Donnelly
    Braun
    50.5%
    48.0%
    Maine
    King (I)
    Brakey
    60.3%
    25.7%
    Maryland
    Cardin
    Campbell
    62.5%
    35.6%
    Massachusetts
    Warren
    Diehl
    60.3%
    38.0%
    Michigan
    Stabenow
    James
    55.0%
    43.0%
    Minnesota
    Klobuchar
    Newberger
    66.4%
    32.1%
    Mississippi
    Baria
    Wicker
    42.8%
    56.6%
    Missouri
    McCaskill
    Hawley
    47.5%
    48.0%
    Montana
    Tester
    Rosendale
    52.4%
    45.1%
    Nebraska
    Raybould
    Fischer
    43.3%
    55.8%
    Nevada
    Rosen
    Heller
    49.0%
    48.5%
    New Jersey
    Menendez
    Hugin
    56.5%
    41.6%
    New Mexico
    Heinrich
    Rich
    51.3%
    30.0%
    New York
    Gillibrand
    Farley
    68.5%
    31.5%
    North Dakota
    Heitkamp
    Cramer
    47.4%
    52.6%
    Ohio
    Brown
    Renacci
    56.0%
    44.0%
    Pennsylvania
    Casey Jr.
    Barletta
    54.5%
    42.8%
    Rhode Island
    Whitehouse
    Flanders
    67.3%
    32.7%
    Tennessee
    Bredesen
    Blackburn
    47.4%
    50.4%
    Texas
    O'Rourke
    Cruz
    46.5%
    50.3%
    Utah
    Wilson
    Romney
    31.0%
    61.3%
    Vermont
    Sanders (I)
    Zupan
    72.5%
    24.3%
    Virginia
    Kaine
    Stewart
    59.6%
    39.5%
    Washington
    Cantwell
    Hutchison
    63.0%
    37.0%
    West Virginia
    Manchin
    Morrisey
    53.6%
    44.7%
    Wisconsin
    Baldwin
    Vukmir
    55.7%
    44.3%
    Wyoming
    Trauner
    Barasso
    29.1%
    65.3%
    Minnesota (special election)
    Smith
    Housley
    55.8%
    43.5%
    Mississippi (special election)
    Espy
    Hyde-Smith
    34.8%
    37.5%

    © 2018 by Beech Analytics