2018 Mid term elections
Senate forecast
Who will win the Senate?
49
51
Quick numbers
Seats gained/lost
2018 races won
Democrats
Republicans
0
Democrats
0
Republicans
26
9
Odds of winning control
22.2%
Democrats
Republicans
77.8%
Battleground races
We expect there to be 11 races that could easily be won by either party. By easily won, we mean that both parties have anywhere from a 25-75% chance of winning these races. Of these races, we expect Democrats to win 7, and Republicans to win 4. Based on the fact that Democrats are playing defense in 26 of the 35 Senate races, this edge in battleground elections is not enough for Democrats to take control of the upper chamber.
In order for Democrats to pull off the upset, they need to win 8 of these 11 races. We expect Democrats to make Election Night very interesting with narrow wins in coin-flip states, but we think they will lack the major upset victory -- such as in Tennessee or Texas -- to win the Senate.