2018 Mid term elections
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Senate forecast
Who will win the Senate?
Quick numbers
Seats gained/lost
2018 races won
Democrats
Republicans
0
Democrats
0
Republicans
26
9
Odds of winning control
22.2%
Democrats
Republicans
77.8%
Battleground races
We expect there to be 11 races that could easily be won by either party. By easily won, we mean that both parties have anywhere from a 25-75% chance of winning these races. Of these races, we expect Democrats to win 7, and Republicans to win 4. Based on the fact that Democrats are playing defense in 26 of the 35 Senate races, this edge in battleground elections is not enough for Democrats to take control of the upper chamber.
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In order for Democrats to pull off the upset, they need to win 8 of these 11 races. We expect Democrats to make Election Night very interesting with narrow wins in coin-flip states, but we think they will lack the major upset victory -- such as in Tennessee or Texas -- to win the Senate.
Race projections
Arizona
Sinema
McSally
50.4%
48.5%
California
*Both candidates are Democrats. We project Dianne Feinstein to win.
Connecticut
Murphy
Corey
63.3%
35.7%
Delaware
Carper
Arlett
60.3%
38.3%
Florida
Nelson
Scott
50.2%
49.8%
Hawaii
Hirono
Curtis
69.4%
30.6%
Indiana
Donnelly
Braun
50.5%
48.0%
Maine
King (I)
Brakey
60.3%
25.7%
Maryland
Cardin
Campbell
62.5%
35.6%
Massachusetts
Warren
Diehl
60.3%
38.0%
Michigan
Stabenow
James
55.0%
43.0%
Minnesota
Klobuchar
Newberger
66.4%
32.1%
Mississippi
Baria
Wicker
42.8%
56.6%
Missouri
McCaskill
Hawley
47.5%
48.0%
Montana
Tester
Rosendale
52.4%
45.1%
Nebraska
Raybould
Fischer
43.3%
55.8%
Nevada
Rosen
Heller
49.0%
48.5%
New Jersey
Menendez
Hugin
56.5%
41.6%
New Mexico
Heinrich
Rich
51.3%
30.0%
New York
Gillibrand
Farley
68.5%
31.5%
North Dakota
Heitkamp
Cramer
47.4%
52.6%
Ohio
Brown
Renacci
56.0%
44.0%
Pennsylvania
Casey Jr.
Barletta
54.5%
42.8%
Rhode Island
Whitehouse
Flanders
67.3%
32.7%
Tennessee
Bredesen
Blackburn
47.4%
50.4%
Texas
O'Rourke
Cruz
46.5%
50.3%
Utah
Wilson
Romney
31.0%
61.3%
Vermont
Sanders (I)
Zupan
72.5%
24.3%
Virginia
Kaine
Stewart
59.6%
39.5%
Washington
Cantwell
Hutchison
63.0%
37.0%
West Virginia
Manchin
Morrisey
53.6%
44.7%
Wisconsin
Baldwin
Vukmir
55.7%
44.3%
Wyoming
Trauner
Barasso
29.1%
65.3%
Minnesota (special election)
Smith
Housley
55.8%
43.5%
Mississippi (special election)
Espy
Hyde-Smith
34.8%
37.5%
